Introduction
A softer **jobs print**, steadier **services activity**, and a modest **manufacturing contraction** nudged mortgage rates **lower** again. Below is a fast, scan-friendly brief with the *NYC buyer/investor* lens baked in—so you can act before the next data wave hits. *(Source email: CrossCountry Mortgage “Weekly Market Update,” with labor charts on p.1 and the calendar on p.2.)*
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🔑 Top Takeaways (one screen)
* **Payrolls:** **+22,000** in August; **jobless rate 4.3%**; **AHE +3.7% YoY** → cooling labor = easing rate pressure. ([Bureau of Labor Statistics][1])
* **Openings:** **7.2M** July **JOLTS** (near one-for-one unemployed-to-opening) → less wage heat ahead. ([Bureau of Labor Statistics][2])
* **Activity:** **ISM Services 52.0 (expanding)**; **ISM Manufacturing 48.7 (contracting)** → services still carry the economy. ([Institute for Supply Management][3])
* **Rates:** **30-yr FRM 6.50%** (Freddie Mac weekly) → a fresh 2025 low. ([Freddie Mac][4])
* **Next up:** **PPI (Wed 9/10) & CPI (Thu 9/11)**—key inflation catalysts for rate locks. ([Bureau of Labor Statistics][5])
Per the email’s tape: **Mortgage rates −0.15; Dow +100; Nasdaq +400** last week.
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Labor Market: “Cooler, Not Cold”
* **Nonfarm payrolls:** **+22k**; **unemployment 4.3%**—highest since 2021, signaling slack is building. **Average hourly earnings +3.7% YoY**, the lowest since 2021. ([Bureau of Labor Statistics][1])
* **JOLTS (July):** **7.2M** openings; the ratio of unemployed people per opening \~**1.0** (down from >2.0 in early 2022). Translation: hiring power is rebalancing toward employers. ([Bureau of Labor Statistics][2])
*Email note:* The **bar chart on p.1** plots monthly job gains through August, visually underscoring the downshift.
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Activity Gauges: Services > Manufacturing
* **ISM Services:** **52.0** in August (expansion). Demand is intact, keeping a floor under growth. ([Institute for Supply Management][3])
* **ISM Manufacturing:** **48.7** in August (contraction). A stronger dollar/tariffs may reshuffle cost dynamics, but the sector remains below 50. ([Institute for Supply Management][6])
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Rates: Where We Stand (mini-infographic)
| Benchmark | Latest | WoW |
| ——————————– | ——–: | :—-: |
| **30-yr FRM (Freddie Mac PMMS)** | **6.50%** | ↓ 0.06 |
| **15-yr FRM (Freddie Mac PMMS)** | **5.60%** | ↓ 0.09 |
*Freddie Mac Weekly Survey (as of **Thu, Sept 4**). Lower prints expand refi eligibility and improve purchase affordability.* ([Freddie Mac][4])
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NYC Lens — What to Do Right Now
* **Price both lanes:** If your loan amount can be structured under the **high-cost conforming** cap, compare it against **jumbo** side-by-side (APR, points, cash-to-close). A cooler macro + conforming pricing can beat jumbo math on the margin.
* **Time locks to data:** With **PPI (Wed)** and **CPI (Thu)** on deck, set alerts on the **10-year Treasury**; benign inflation often pulls quotes lower by another notch. ([Bureau of Labor Statistics][5])
* **Leverage sponsor incentives:** As manufacturing lags but services hold, **new-dev** sellers keep using **rate buydowns / credits** to meet monthly-payment targets—ask for them explicitly.
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Week-Ahead Calendar (from email)
* **Wed 09/10:** **PPI**
* **Thu 09/11:** **CPI** & **Jobless Claims**
* **Fri 09/12:** **Consumer Sentiment**
*(The calendar table appears on p.2 of the email.)*
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Quick “Why It Matters” (for investors, buyers, renters-turn-buyers)
* **Investors:** Cooling wages + lower long rates support **cap-rate stability** and **debt-service**; re-run DSCR at 6.50% vs. your prior quotes.
* **Buyers:** Even **−10 to −15 bps** can open new neighborhoods at NYC price points—refresh pre-approvals and compare **zero-point vs. buy-down** options.
* **Renters-turn-buyers:** If you’re within **20–40 FICO points** of a better tier, a two-week polish (utilization, no new credit) paired with a friendly rate print can be the difference between **“nice” and “got it.”**
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Sources & Further Reading
* **CrossCountry Mortgage — Weekly Market Update (Week Ending 09/05/2025).**
* **BLS — Employment Situation (Aug 2025):** payrolls **+22k**, **UR 4.3%**, **AHE +3.7% YoY**. ([Bureau of Labor Statistics][1])
* **BLS — JOLTS (July 2025):** openings **7.2M**; unemployed-per-opening near **1.0**. ([Bureau of Labor Statistics][2])
* **ISM — Services PMI (Aug 2025) = 52.0; Manufacturing PMI (Aug 2025) = 48.7.** ([Institute for Supply Management][3])
* **Freddie Mac — PMMS archive (week of Sept 4, 2025):** **30-yr 6.50%**, **15-yr 5.60%**. ([Freddie Mac][4])
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*Need this converted into a gated “Deal Sheet” with side-by-side **conforming-high-cost vs. jumbo** APRs and a lock checklist? Say the word—I’ll package it for nycexclusiveapts.com.*
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Sydney Harewood is a real estate professional with a passion for NYC’s architectural gems. For inquiries, call or message Syd at 📞646-535-3819. Experience the finest in NYC real estate with Syd’s expert guidance and deep knowledge of the city’s most exquisite properties.
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