Mortgage Markets on Cruise Control — Weekly Recap (Week Ending July 18, 2025)
A lighter data calendar didn’t stop markets from serving up a tasty mix of sub‑3 % inflation, surprisingly strong consumer spending, and flat mortgage rates. Here’s the espresso‑shot version of what happened — plus what’s percolating next week.
☕️ Quick Sips — Why This Week Mattered
- Core CPI: up 0.2 % m/m, 2.9 % y/y — still well above the Fed’s 2 % target but far below the 6.6 % peak of 2022.
- Core PPI: flat m/m (0 %), easing to 2.6 % y/y — the coolest reading since April 2024.
- Retail Sales: jumped 0.6 % m/m (triple forecasts) with gains in autos, DIY, and apparel; restaurants kept ringing the register.
- Mortgage Rates: virtually unchanged; the 30‑yr fixed held steady on the week.
- Weekly Scoreboard: Dow +100 pts | Nasdaq +300 pts | Mortgage rates 🚏 bus stop — no change.
Source: Weekly Market Update e‑mail, CrossCountry Mortgage
📊 Zoom In — Inflation Data
Core CPI: Housing Still the Elephant in the Room
- Shelter costs remain the chief culprit, slowing the glide‑path back to 2 %.
- Deflationary pockets: used & new vehicles, airfares.
- Tariff pinch: home furnishings and apparel prices moved higher — a theme to watch if trade tensions persist.
Core PPI: Producer Prices Hit the Snooze Button
- Zero growth in June suggests upstream price pressure is easing.
- Historically, softer PPI often feeds into cooler consumer prices a few months later — good news for rate‑cut hopefuls.
Retail Therapy: Consumers Still Swiping
Retail sales crushed expectations, up 4 % y/y. Stand‑outs:
| Category | % Change m/m | Why it Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Motor Vehicles | ↑ | Big‑ticket confidence signal |
| Home Improvement | ↑ | Homeowners still investing despite rate fatigue |
| Apparel | ↑ | Tariff‑related price moves could be boosting dollar sales |
| Restaurants & Bars | ↑ | Discretionary spending hasn’t rolled over yet |
🏠 Mortgage Market Snapshot
| Metric | Weekly Move |
|---|---|
| 30‑yr Fixed | Flat |
| Dow | +100 |
| NASDAQ | +300 |
(Table adapted from “Weekly Changes” graphic on page 3 of the update.)
Humorous aside: Mortgage rates were about as exciting this week as a broccoli sandwich — healthy stability, zero spice.
🔭 Looking Ahead (Week of 22 July)
| Date | Release/Event | Why You Should Care |
|---|---|---|
| Wed 23 Jul | Existing Home Sales | Fresh read on resale supply & demand |
| Thu 24 Jul | New Home Sales | Builder pulse check |
| Thu 24 Jul | ECB Meeting | Euro‑zone policy can sway global bond yields |
| Fri 25 Jul | Durable Orders | Gauge of business cap‑ex momentum |
Pro‑Tip: If the housing prints surprise to the upside and durable orders rebound, expect renewed chatter about the Fed staying “higher for longer.”
🌐 Useful Outlinks
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✍️ Coach’s Closing Note
Stability in mortgage rates offers a breather for borrowers, yet the tug‑of‑war between sticky shelter inflation and softer producer prices means patience is still the name of the game. As always, stay curious, stay nimble, and keep your coffee (and due‑diligence) hot.
Questions? Drop them below or hit reply — I’m here to help decode the data.
Sydney Harewood is a real estate professional with a passion for NYC’s architectural gems. For inquiries, call or message Syd at 📞646-535-3819. Experience the finest in NYC real estate with Syd’s expert guidance and deep knowledge of the city’s most exquisite properties.
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